Monsoon IRE

         No country in the world is as much dependent on Monsoons as India is for our only source of water supply are the rains apart from the perennial river watersheds.An untimely or a bad monsoon affects more than two-thirds of the country's population and with more than half the population still dependent on agriculture and this suggests a grave scenario.The El-Nino suggests a bleak situation leaving the farmers at dismay aping towards the sky for the rain uncertain of its homecoming.

         Let us consider that the Monsoons are delayed or are weak..this means a delay in the kharif season and also a net decrease in the cropping area and so the total output...which means the exports of our agri products would take a blow.This would result in a short or an extended kharif season a delayed or short zaid and rabi.

         The farmers might sow their seeds expecting rains but any delay would cause further degradation of the farmers who would have taken loans for the cropping season and any mishap just pushes them deeper into the shackles of indebtedness into the hands of the merciless moneylender..Infact a bad monsoon can send the lives of the farmers into disarray.Well so u think the monsoons would just affect the farmers...na jus think...

        Already with the Alphonso Mango facing the ire of the EU adding to the woes of the farmers thus reducing Indian governments income....India exports cotton, wheat, rice,jute,tea,coffee,fruits,pulses and many other edible items and is amongst the world leading exporters in quite a few.This means we lose a considerable amount of our exports.Well this is at the global level but at the local level the scarcity would cause a spike in the prices causing a dent to our purse...

        The hydro electric projects would run dry or run at the minimum level thus depriving us of the installed capacity of  Hydel power thus increasing the pressure on thermal power plants leading to demand for thermal power thus culminating in a rise in power tariffs(though there is no need ,the Power discoms are crying that they are incurring huge debts and giving in to the powerful lobbying the government increases the prices and the common man is the sufferer)...

         

India's Power situation in 2012

Well with new malls cropping up in every alternate street there is a huge demand for electricity but there is a huge scarcity and thus leading to power cuts in cities,towns and villages in order to accomodate the needs of the Industries and malls at the expense of the "Mango People" for the peak demand is no where near achievable under the present circumstances....

           With such power scarcity the Industries would also be terribly hit thus affecting the productivity hence adding to the woes of a snail paced IIP which is at its decadal low of 1% growth this fiscal...India is an exporter of Steel,Services,Textiles,Sea Foods,Fertilisers,Chemicals all of which are dependent on the Industries which inturn on the electricity...

Source:Planning Commission

           So the net exports reduce thus increasing our ever expanding current account deficit thus the Indian government having to pay for the oil imports in dollars leads to volatility of the Indian rupee thus making Indian rupee weak in comparison with the American dollar.Well the GDP too would be worstly hit.. :-(

            With the macro economic factors taking a jolt and with no hopes of revival of the economy anytime soon the governemnt would have to take austerity measures and also reduce social spending thus affecting the poor,the unemployed and the weaker sections...The country would be in shambles..

           The aquaculture is highly dependent on the cold storages which account for a substantial amount of exports and the cold storages need huge amounts of electricity to be operating 24 x7...

Source:Ministry of Power

            The lack of water creates a power shortage which may result in power cuts during peak summers which may vary from 2 to 12 hours(as it happened in the recent past) in the cities while villages being the worst affected...thus causing an impairment to the agricultural practices further worsening the condition...

         The idea of renewable energy does come to everyone's mind but with not much installed capacity and not much effort in this regard...this source can do little to reduce our woes but definetly can be a potential solution and we may follow Germany in this regard.

              There will be an intra and inter hustle among the industries ,agricultural sector,domestic sector,cottage industries ,hospitals,railways,airports and what not...the government should be able to prioritize while allocating the limited power resources.

        The worst affected would be the aqua ecosystem which inturn shows on the fishermen and the animals living in and around them...

               Which is the area not affected due to scarcity of water...can we think of our life without water..right from the moment we get down from bed till we hit the sack again our life is connected with water ..Our country needs monsoons in time and in the right amounts to be on the growth path and for the people to lead a normal life,

              Just one unapt monsoon can wreck havoc in the lives of millions and put the government in a  fix...The monsoons may just be the rainy season but it is the binding force of India and its people a hope that people cling on to year after year hoping hoping that it would not cause any chaos.
 
P.S:The unpredictability of Monsoon makes it a very complex phenomenon...And  I am not predicting a late or bad monsoon but just wanted to pen down my opinion on Monsoon ire ;)